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PRMIA PRM Certification - Exam III: Risk Management Frameworks, Operational Risk, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Market Risk, ALM, FTP - 2015 Edition Sample Questions:

1. If the cumulative default probabilities of default for years 1 and 2 for a portfolio of credit risky assets is 5% and 15% respectively, what is the marginal probability of default in year 2 alone?

A) 15.79%
B) 11.76%
C) 10.53%
D) 10.00%

2. If and are the expected rate of return and volatility of an asset whose prices are log-normally distributed, and a random drawing from a standard normal distribution, we can simulate the asset's returns using the expressions:

A) - + .
B) + .
C) / .
D) - .

3. A long position in a credit sensitive bond can be synthetically replicated using:

A) a short position in a treasury bond and a long position in a CDS
B) a long position in a treasury bond and a short position in a CDS
C) a long position in a treasury bond and a long position in a CDS
D) a short position in a treasury bond and a short position in a CDS

4. Which of the following correctly describes survivorship bias:

A) Survivorship bias refers to prudent and conservative risk management
B) Survivorship bias is the negative skew in returns data resulting from credits that have survived despite a high probability of default
C) Survivorship bias is the tendency for failed companies, markets or investments to be excluded from performance data.
D) Survivorship bias is the positive tail risk that ensures survival over the long run

5. The backtesting of VaR estimates under the Basel accord requires comparing the ex-ante VaR to:

A) the Basel accord does not require banks to backtest VaR estimates
B) realized profit and loss for the period
C) ex-ante VaR calculated for the subsequent periods
D) hypothetical profit and loss keeping the positions constant

Solutions: